Arsenal 3–0 Coventry
xG: Arsenal 1.80 — Coventry 0.28 | Arsenal | Coventry |
⚽ Goals | Havertz, Saka, Ødegaard | — |
🅰️ Assists | Calafiori, Tzolis, White | — |
🚩 Corners | R) Saka - 5 L) Rice - 3 | R) Grimes - 1 L) Grimes - 1 |
🎯 Free Kicks | Eze - 1 (Shot) | Grimes - 1 Torp - 1 |
🧱 DefCon Leaders | — | — |
🌟 BPS (BONUS) | Ødegaard - 41 (+3) White - 37 (+2) Saka - 36 (+1) | Grimes - 14 Thomas - 12 Thomas-Asante - 9 |
Arsenal looked like reigning champions. Everything early went through Tzolis, and you can see why he has been racking up assists. I'm not convinced his position is completely locked yet, so I'd wait until the transfer window closes before making the switch.
We also saw glimpses of the old Ødegaard, which could make £6.5m look like a bargain. He's my main one to watch. Saka and Rice starting was a surprise, so monitor their minutes going forward. White and Calafiori both got extremely advanced, but White is my pick for now purely because his minutes look more secure as Arteta sung high praise for both Calafiori and Hincapie pre-game. Havertz played well, although there are still questions over his minutes. Arsenal's defence looks like Arsenal's defence.
Coventry looked like a newly promoted side, but away at the Emirates isn't the game to judge them on. Their defenders should rack up plenty of DefCon this season and could provide some good £4.0m enablers.
The Takeaways
⚽ Tzolis, Ødegaard and Saka look like the main routes into the attack
🧱 The more Arsenal defence, the better
🪽 White and Calafiori both offer attacking threat
📊 The xG doesn't fully reflect Arsenal's dominance
💰 Coventry £4.0m defenders: Van Ewijk > Amenda > Thomas
Hull 2–0 Man Utd
xG: Hull 1.31 — Man Utd 1.82 | Arsenal | Man Utd |
⚽ Goals | Ajayi, Mendy | — |
🅰️ Assists | McBurnie, Slater | — |
🚩 Corners | L) Slater - 1 | R) Mbeumo - 4 L) Fernandes - 2 |
🎯 Free Kicks | Slater - 1 | Shaw - 1 |
🧱 DefCon Leaders | Egan - 22/10 Mendy - 13/10 | — |
🌟 BPS (BONUS) | Tzolakis - 41 (+3) Ajayi - 39 (+2) Mendy - 35 (+1) | Fernandes - 18 Santos - 17 Maguire - 15 |
Is there much to say here? I'll keep this one short. We need to see more from both teams before making any real judgements, but maybe Hull aren't as bad as we thought.
Mbeumo at RW and Cunha up front wasn't my first guess. With Dorgu's average performance, I could see Amad coming into the side next week, which could shift everyone around again.
The Takeaways
⏳ Hold United assets for GW2
💰 Slater at £4.5m could be one to watch for Hull
Nottm Forest 0–1 Leeds
xG: Nottm Forest 0.65 — Leeds 0.49 | Nottm Forest | Leeds |
⚽ Goals | — | Stach (FK) |
🅰️ Assists | — | — |
🚩 Corners | R) McAtee - 3 | R) Stach - 1, Wilson - 1 |
🎯 Free Kicks | Gibbs-White - 3 (1 shot) Williams - 1 | Stach - 3 (2 shots) Wilson - 1 |
🧱 DefCon Leaders | Murillo - 13/10 | Stach - 16/12 Justin - 12/10 Bijol - 11/10 |
🌟 BPS (BONUS) | Aina - 24 McAtee - 18 Murillo - 14 | Stach - 37 (+3) Trafford - 28 (+2) Justin - 28 (+2) |
Murillo had eight DefCon by half time and arguably should have had an assist, while Milenkovic also came close to scoring. With Doumandé set to join them in defence, Forest could keep more clean sheets than expected. Igor Jesus playing 90 minutes was also notable, with Chris Wood coming on for N'Doye instead.
Leeds' defence looks full of DefCon beasts, while Stach stands out in midfield with multiple routes to points. Ampadu and Wilson also look heavily involved going forward. Leeds look like a genuine team this season, but their best FPL asset isn't obvious just yet.
The Takeaways
🧱 Both defences look strong for DefCon
💰 Stach and Ampadu look like midfield enablers
📅 Leeds' early fixtures are worth targeting
🪽 Neco Williams looks like a 90 minute wingback
Everton 2–0 Palace
xG: Everton 1.15 — Crystal Palace 2.03 | Everton | Crystal Palace |
⚽ Goals | Dewsbury-Hall, Barry | — |
🅰️ Assists | Armstrong, Ndiaye | — |
🚩 Corners | R) Dewsbury-Hall - 3 L) Hackney - 1 | — |
🎯 Free Kicks | Dewsbury-Hall - 1 | — |
🧱 DefCon Leaders | Armstrong - 16/12 Ndiaye - 12/12 | Richards - 16/10 Kamada - 14/12 Wharton - 14/12 |
🌟 BPS (BONUS) | Dewsbury-Hall - 40 (+3) Barry - 37 (+2) Ndiaye - 36 (+1) | Kamada - 26 Wharton - 20 Henderson - 14 |
Everton were lucky to get away with this one, and the data reflects that. Mateta being Mateta, getting into great positions but not finishing his dinner, continues to be a theme. Consistently underperforming his xG points towards poor finishing rather than bad luck, but if he keeps starting and getting chances, he remains a differential. Wharton was excellent, although the lack of attacking threat makes him difficult to consider for FPL.
Dewsbury-Hall continues to outperform his numbers with brilliant strikes. Set pieces and a locked in 10 role makes him a genuine option at £6.5m, although Ndiaye looks even better value at £6.0m. DefCon, assists, goal threat and penalties give him plenty of routes to points. Barry starting over Beto is also worth watching ahead of Everton's GW4 to GW6 run.
The Takeaway
⭐ Ndiaye — potentially the best £6.0m option
👀 Dewsbury-Hall & Barry — ones to watch
🧱 Palace defenders — should offer consistent DefCon
⚽ Mateta — the goals should come if he keeps starting
Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland
xG: Ipswich 1.74 — Sunderland 0.76 | Ipswich | Sunderland |
⚽ Goals | Emersonn, Clarke | Angulo (FK) |
🅰️ Assists | Enciso, Lukić | Sadiki |
🚩 Corners | L) Lukić - 1, Núñez - 1 R) Fatawu - 1 | R) Xhaka - 3 L) Xhaka - 1, Le Fée - 1 |
🎯 Free Kicks | Lukić - 1 | Xhaka - 1 Angulo - 1 FK shot |
🧱 DefCon Leaders | O'Shea - 18/10 Núñez - 12/12 | Xhaka - 12/12 |
🌟 BPS (BONUS) | Emersonn - 41 (+3) Clarke - 27 (+1) Núñez - 26 | Xhaka - 31 (+2) Angulo - 23 Sadiki - 20 |
Ipswich surprised me going forward, and Enciso at the 10 was the standout. If he starts picking up set pieces, expect him to be in my team soon at £5.5m. O'Shea hitting DefCon from full-back, while also posting 0.16 xA, makes him look like one of the best £4.0m enablers around. Ipswich away might be a tougher fixture than we expected.
Sunderland lacked a bit of oomph, with their 0.76 xG reflecting that. Brobbey and Le Fée don't look particularly appealing without added set pieces, but I'd hold for Fulham at home. The returns of Mukiele and Alderete should make a big difference, while I'd give Ballard's DefCon more time.
The Takeaway
💰 O'Shea — potentially the best £4.0m enabler
👀 Enciso — one to watch, especially if he gains set pieces
🏠 Don't underestimate Ipswich at home
⏳ Hold Sunderland assets for now, but the scepticism is understandable
🔙 Mukiele & Alderete are badly needed
Brentford 3-0 Spurs
xG: Brentford 4.03 — Spurs 0.47 | Brentford | Spurs |
⚽ Goals | Lewis-Potter, Janelt, Kayode | — |
🅰️ Assists | M. Sangaré (2), O. Dango | — |
🚩 Corners | R) Janelt - 4 L) Jensen - 1, Damsgaard - 2 | R) Robertson - 2 L) Tel - 1 |
🎯 Free Kicks | Jensen - 2 (1 shot) | Tel - 1 (shot) Tonali - 1 |
🧱 DefCon Leaders | Janelt - 13/12 M. Sangaré - 12/12 Ajer - 10/10 | Senesi - 15/10 Robertson - 11/10 |
🌟 BPS (BONUS) | M. Sangaré - 40 (+3) Kayode - 36 (+2) Lewis-Potter - 36 (+2) | Fernandes - 16 Gray - 16 Tel - 16 |
Brentford's attack looks next level. Between Thiago, Schade, Dango, Jensen and Lewis-Potter, there is serious FPL value, and it doesn't look like slowing down. Sangaré was the standout, showing multiple routes to points through DefCon, assists, bonus and goal threat.
Spurs are much harder to make sense of. Their high line and lack of pace at the back left them completely exposed by balls over the top. Senesi's DefCon was one positive, while Robertson getting forward, taking corners and hitting DefCon was encouraging, although I'm not convinced it's sustainable and suspect Van De Ven will replace Senesi upon his return to the first team,
The Takeaway
❌ Avoid Spurs assets for now
🔥 Buy Brentford attackers while the fixtures are good — Thiago > Dango > Schade > Jensen
👀 Sangaré could be the full package, but don't jump the gun — remember Reijnders last season
Man City 2-1 Bournemouth
xG: Man City 2.35 — Bournemouth 0.63 | Man City | Bournemouth |
⚽ Goals | Guéhi, Gvardiol | Tavernier |
🅰️ Assists | Cherki (2) | Evanilson |
🚩 Corners | R) Foden - 5, Cherki - 1 L) Cherki - 1, Anderson - 1 | R) Tavernier - 1, Scott - 1 L) Scott - 1 |
🎯 Free Kicks | Foden - 1 | Tavernier - 1 |
🧱 DefCon Leaders | — | Silva - 13/10 |
🌟 BPS (BONUS) | Guéhi - 31 (+2) Cherki - 28 (+1) Gvardiol - 28 (+1) | Tavernier - 32 (+3) Gvardiol - 28 (+1) Scott - 17 |
It started with the lineup: Guéhi at the 6, Lewis starting over Nunes, and Foden out wide. It's still unclear exactly how Maresca wants to set up, and the performance was inconsistent despite a strong opening 15 minutes. Ultimately, the late changes made the difference.
O'Reilly at the 10 was particularly interesting for FPL. If he can lock down that role, or even regular midfield minutes, he could be a great option, especially with Gvardiol looking secure at full-back. Foden's set-piece dominance was also notable, while Cherki continues to impress when given minutes.
Bournemouth looked structurally sound and should cause teams problems. Attacking returns could be spread between Evanilson, Kluivert, Tavernier and Rayan, while their defenders could offer strong DefCon potential.
The Takeaway
⚽ City should continue producing plenty of attacking returns
👀 O'Reilly — a must-have if his minutes are secure regardless of position
🎯 Foden — set pieces make him one to watch
🙏 More Cherki minutes, please
🧱 Bournemouth defence — potential DefCon value
Brighton 4-0 Aston Villa
xG: Brighton 3.68 — Aston Villa 0.31 | Brighton | Aston Villa |
⚽ Goals | De Cuyper, Georginio, Hinshelwood x 2, Lindelöf OG | — |
🅰️ Assists | De Cuyper, Gomez, Hinshelwood | — |
🚩 Corners | L) Groß - 2 R) Groß - 1, De Cuyper - 2 | L) Buendía - 1, Barkley - 1 |
🎯 Free Kicks | Groß - 1 | — |
🧱 DefCon Leaders | — | — |
🌟 BPS (BONUS) | Hinshelwood - 54 (+3) De Cuyper - 48 (+2) Wieffer - 31 (+1) | George Hemmings - 12 Barkley - 11 Kamara - 9 |
Are Brighton dark horses, or are Villa really this bad? Brighton dominated from the start, and despite European football, their squad looks deep enough to cope. Hinshelwood playing as a 10 alongside Georginio was encouraging, while De Cuyper could be a sneaky FPL defender if he continues playing so high.
Villa, meanwhile, look like a team to target until we see significant improvement or new signings.
The Takeaway
🧱 Vuskovic — give him more time; the game state wasn't ideal for DefCon
👀 De Cuyper — one to watch if his advanced role and minutes continue
🎯 Target Villa
💰 Gomez (£5.0m) — minutes look promising after featuring in both Europe and the league
Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool
xG: Newcastle 1.43 — Liverpool 2.75 | Newcastle | Liverpool |
⚽ Goals | Elanga, Willock | Gakpo, Szoboszlai |
🅰️ Assists | Osula, Wissa | Gravenberch, Muñoz |
🚩 Corners | R) Hall - 2 | R) Szoboszlai - 1 L) Szoboszlai - 5 |
🎯 Free Kicks | Hall - 1 Osula - 1 (shot) | Szoboszlai - 5 (2 shots) |
🧱 DefCon Leaders | Thiaw - 15/10 L. Miley - 13/12 Hall - 11/10 | Virgil - 11/10 |
🌟 BPS (BONUS) | Elanga - 31 (+3) Willock - 26 Osula - 18 | Gakpo - 31 (+3) Szoboszlai - 29 (+1) Gravenberch - 28 |
FPL summary:
An end-to-end game, with Osula, Wissa and Elanga causing Liverpool plenty of problems. Newcastle's attack looks underrated, particularly at home. Wissa's minutes also look secure, moving to striker later in the game rather than being subbed early. Thiaw looks a strong DefCon option after hitting 15/10.
Liverpool's 2.75 xG shows the attacking potential is there, even if they still look like they're adapting. Szoboszlai looks particularly interesting for FPL with 90-minute potential, heavy set-piece involvement and possibly penalties. Wirtz's early substitution was a surprise, although the frantic game state probably didn't suit him.
The Takeaway
🧱 Thiaw - strong DefCon potential
🎯 Szoboszlai — minutes, set pieces and potentially pens
❌ Liverpool defenders look risky outside Van Dijk
👀 Wissa — one to watch
Fulham 2-3 Chelsea
xG: Fulham 1.46 — Chelsea 1.69 | Fulham | Chelsea |
⚽ Goals | King, Gonzalo | João Pedro, Rogers, Palmer |
🅰️ Assists | Castagne (2) | Palmer, Lacroix, João Pedro |
🚩 Corners | R) Bobb - 4, Iwobi - 1 L) Kevin - 1 | R) Rogers - 1, Estêvão - 1 L) James - 1, Palmer - 1 |
🎯 Free Kicks | Iwobi - 1 | James - 1 |
🧱 DefCon Leaders | J. Cuenca - 10/10 | Acheampong - 15/10 Lacroix - 12/10 |
🌟 BPS (BONUS) | Gonzalo - 35 King - 35 Castagne - 23 | Palmer - 60 (+3) João Pedro - 45 (+2) Rogers - 37 (+1) |
The best was definitely saved until last. It feels safe to say Palmer is back. He ran the show, with open play threat, set pieces and penalties giving him plenty of routes to points. He also showed some DefCon potential with Caicedo out, although I wouldn't expect that consistently. Rogers could offer similar upside without the set peices.
Chelsea still look vulnerable at the back, not helped by an average Sánchez performance. They look like a team that will score and concede plenty of goals.
The main takeaway from Fulham is that they should score goals. Gonzalo looks like their main man and, with penalties, is a genuine £6.0m option. Everything also ran through King, who is one to watch if his minutes remain consistent.
The Takeaway
🥶 Palmer is back
⚽ Expect plenty of goals from Chelsea
⚠️ Chelsea still look vulnerable defensively
👀 Gonzalo and King are ones to watch
Disclaimer
Do not rush your transfers! Unless a GW2 move was already planned or your team is in desperate need of fixing, hold your transfer and monitor.
One game is a tiny sample size. We still have plenty to learn about minutes, roles, set pieces and new signings. Use GW1 to identify players and trends to watch, not to chase last week's points.
Thank you to @robtFPL for the data