At this stage of the season, fixtures and performances matter, but a team’s motivation also needs to be considered.
We pick out teams and players to target for the run-in, who still have everything to play for.
Arsenal
The obvious place to start is with the league leaders in north London. After an impressive performance against Fulham, their title hopes were further bolstered by Manchester City dropping points at Everton.
Arsenal looked back to their best in gameweek 35. They kept Fulham to just 0.70 xG and racked up 4.09 xG themselves. Interest has been cool on their attacking assets for a while, but they may have the form and fixtures to make them worth targeting once more.
Leading the way is Bukayo Saka (£9.8m), who looks back to his best following a lengthy lay off through injury. In just 45 minutes, he terrorised the Fulham defence and came away with a goal and an assist from 1.16 xGI. He built on that performance in midweek, scoring the goal which sent Arsenal to the Champions League final. His return to fitness coincides with a potentially tricky trip to West Ham, before two excellent fixtures in Burnley and Crystal Palace, who could both be well and truly ‘on the beach’.
Victor Gyokeres (£8.8m) seemed to enjoy Saka’s return more than anybody in gameweek 35, scoring two goals and getting an assist himself. He holds a penalty share even with Saka on the pitch, and will look to provide a focal point for Arsenal in the run-in.
At the back, Gabriel (£7.2m) needs little explanation. The Brazilian put up a season-high 0.64 xG in gameweek 35, suggesting his threat from corners may be returning. As Arsenal have so much to play for, you can expect their defensive focus to be at an all-time high. Two or three clean sheets would not be surprising to see as the Gunners look to seal the title.
Manchester City
After 13 minutes of madness in gameweek 35, the title was taken out of Manchester City’s hands once again. Despite this collapse, they still have everything left to play for and can never be written off.
They also benefit from a double gameweek in gameweek 36, meaning that three City assets should be a priority for anyone who does not yet have a triple-up.
Rayan Cherki (£6.6m) is one of the main standouts in the City attack currently. He has three assists and a goal in his last six, and his underlying numbers in that time are just as impressive. He is second only to Haaland for shots and third in the league for chances created. The young Frenchman is playing a key role for City, and they will need him at his best if they are going to win the title.
Erling Haaland (£14.4m) can never be ignored, despite being more peripheral of late. He still leads the league over the last six for shots and shots in the box, although just six of these have been big chances. He has continued to chip in with crucial goals despite his slight drop-off in numbers. Those chasing can take him on, but with a lack of premiums to choose from, he is sure to be popular in the closing stages.
Playing almost as a strike partner to Haaland at times is Nico O’Reilly (£5.2m). Whether he starts at left back or in midfield, O’Reilly is constantly in the penalty area. He unsurprisingly leads defenders for xGI and could be a differential captaincy option for the double gameweek with both clean sheet and attacking potential.
Brighton
Completing our list is a Brighton side who faltered at St. James’ Park in gameweek 35. Before this, they had been on a five-game unbeaten run and were on the brink of European qualification. This now looks less secure and should mean they are fully focused until gameweek 38.
Their appeal also lies in their fixtures between now and the end of the season. They face three sides with almost nothing left to play for, meaning the Seagulls have options in both defence and attack.
Their midfield creator, Pascal Groß (£5.5m), has been spoken about at length in our articles in recent weeks. He was relatively quiet by his standards in gameweek 35, but had recorded three assists in the three weeks prior. He continues to take corners and set pieces and gets involved in Brighton’s attacking play all over the pitch. He is level with Cherki for chances created in the last six, and leads the league for successful crosses in that time.
Up front, veteran striker Danny Welbeck (£6.3m) will look to finish an impressive campaign strongly. He has thirteen goals this season already, and with the fixtures that are upcoming, he should end the season with a few more to his name. The Wolves game alone is tempting enough, given their defensive slide. Since gameweek 23, no team has conceded more xG than the already-relegated Wolves side.
In defence, Jan Paul van Hecke (£4.6m) benefits from both defcon and clean sheet potential. Since their win over Sunderland in gameweek 30, he has secured at least one of the two in every match. Wolves have scored just once in their last four, so Van Hecke’s run has every reason to continue.
