The final three weeks of the season are upon us, and time is running out for any late rank surges. Now is the perfect time to turn to some differentials to help with the final push.
Our focus for gameweek 36 has been on picking differentials from highly motivated teams still in the hunt for European football.
Michael Keane
Ownership in FPL: 2.6%
Price: £4.5m
Position: Defender
We are starting at the back with an old favourite, Michael Keane. The Everton centre-back first featured in our gameweek 9 differentials article and provided some joy until Branthwaite’s return. He is back, starting again, and is worthy of a spot on our list.
Everton’s motivations are high as they sit just a few points off the European places after a strong campaign. If their lively performance against City in gameweek 35 was anything to go by, they will be giving everything in these final three games.
Their next two matches are against teams with nothing to play for in Crystal Palace and Sunderland. Palace will be particularly jaded after their own European commitments against Shakhtar Donetsk on Thursday evening.
These encounters could bring clean sheets Everton’s way, which Keane would stand to benefit from.
Keane also brings a very steady defcon floor to the table. Across the season, he has recorded 10.65 defcons per 90, which is among the highest for defenders.
He is well known for his eye for goal, also. This season, he already has three to his name, and it would not be a surprise to see him get another. Crystal Palace and Sunderland are both in the bottom seven for chances conceded from set pieces.
Jack Hinshelwood
Ownership in FPL: 0.6%
Price: £5.1m
Position: Midfielder
While our interests in the Brighton midfield have often focused on Pascal Groß, another standout with even less ownership is Jack Hinselwood. The young Englishman has made the number ten spot his own since gameweek 26.
No player in the league can boast better xGI numbers than Hinshelwood over the last six. The youngster has recorded 4.42 xGI in this spell.
It felt for a few games that he might never deliver the goal that his underlying data deserved. However, this feeling came to an end in his last two gameweeks, where he has found the back of the net twice.
Wolves await Brighton in gameweek 35, which could be a perfect fixture for Hinshelwood to continue his run of returns. No side has conceded more xG in the league than Wolves since gameweek 23.
With a return to Europe beckoning and stern competition from the sides around them, Brighton cannot afford to take their foot off the pedal the rest of the way. The fixtures are well set up for them to finish strongly, and Hinshelwood is in a good position to reward the 0.6% of managers showing faith in him.
Iliman Ndiaye
Ownership in FPL: 4.4%
Price: £6.2m
Position: Midfielder
For our next differential, we go back to Everton, this time it is for their talisman, Iliman Ndiaye. He also featured in a previous article after his return from AFCON. He has ticked along steadily since then, but if his performance against City is anything to go by, a haul could be on the horizon.
In gameweek 35, Ndiaye came away from the 3-3 draw against City with nothing to show. His all-round game deserved so much more. The winger took the joint-most shots in the match with four, missed a big chance, and finished on 0.82xG.
With games upcoming against a distracted Crystal Palace and a Sunderland side with little to play for, a similarly open encounter could end very differently for Ndiaye owners.
Even without huge open play opportunities, the Senegalese international has other routes to points. He remains Everton’s penalty taker, having never missed so far in his career. He also contributes a surprisingly high number of defcon points. He has hit the threshold six times this season and come very close on multiple other occasions.
Junior Kroupi
Ownership in FPL: 6.0%
Price: £4.6m
Position: Forward
Completing the list is Bournemouth’s latest gem, Junior Kroupi. The 19-year-old has 12 goals already this season and goes into the closing stages with just 6% ownership.
What is most notable about his double-digit return is that most of his minutes have come in midfield. The young Frenchman is an excellent finisher, scoring his 12 goals from just 7.9xG. Four of these have come in his last five outings.
Iraola has continued to try to find ways to get him into the Bournemouth starting XI, having recently said that he was ‘improving all the time’. His return to the starting XI in gameweek 32 has coincided with three wins and a draw.
Notably, Kroupi has seemingly taken over penalty duties from Marcus Tavernier. What is even more encouraging is how good he is at them. Not only does this make him an exciting option for the closing stages of the season, but it puts him firmly on our watchlist for next season as well.
Similarly to Everton, Bournemouth face a couple of sides with little left to play for. They play Fulham in gameweek 36 and end the season with a trip to Nottingham Forest. They will also play a role in the title race as they host Manchester City. Given the joy that Everton found last week, this may not be the worst fixture for an in-form Kroupi.
FPL Gameweek 36 Differentials: A Round Up
Michael Keane £4.5m offers a strong defcon floor with clean sheet potential 2.6% Ownership.
Jack Hinshelwood £5.1m leads the league for xGI over the last six and faces Wolves this week 0.6% Ownership.
Iliman Ndiaye £6.2m looked lively as ever in gameweek 35 and has penalty duties 4.4% Ownership.
Junior Kroupi £4.6m is Bournemouth’s penalty taker and in excellent form 6.0% Ownership.
