With five free transfers being given to us in gameweek 16 before AFCON, there is no better time to look at a lowly owned differential to boost your rank.
We have picked out three differential assets in defence, midfield and attack for you to consider ahead of gameweek 15.
Nicola Savona: Dyche’s Differential Full Back
Ownership in FPL: 0.2% Price: £4.5m Position: Defender
We are six games into Sean Dyche’s Nottingham Forest tenure, and they are in the top 5 for expected goals against in that time.
This is little surprise to those of us who have watched Sean Dyche’s teams over the years and know the kinds of defences he builds.
At only £4.5m, and owned by only 0.2% of managers, Nicola Savona is providing a differential budget route into that strong defence. The tall fullback has been performing far better than a budget pick would be expected to.
In addition to the two clean sheets since Dyche arrived, Savona has also scored two goals. These are not undeserved, as he is posting 0.18 expected goal involvements (xGI) per 90.
He is yet to hit the defensive contribution (defcon) threshold, but he is taking around 0.5 shots per 90 in the box, meaning the attacking returns may yet continue.
Forest’s fixture run is mixed. However, between now and gameweek 27, their toughest fixtures come at home, where you can expect them to put up a fight and possibly grind out some clean sheets.
As the cheapest route into the Forest defence, there is value in the differential Nicola Savona.
Harvey Barnes: A Hidden Gem Primed to Explode
Ownership in FPL: 2.4% Price: £6.4m Position: Midfielder
Harvey Barnes has been in rich goalscoring form for Newcastle so far this season. Despite limited starts, he has three goals in the Premier League and four in the Champions League.
Despite these goals, he is only in 2.4% of FPL teams. A lot of this comes down to his lack of minutes security. However, he has started the last four in a row and performed well in these games.
As with all differentials, there is risk attached. In Harvey Barnes’ case, the risk comes from competition with Anthony Gordon.
For those willing to take the chance on his starts, Barnes has been delivering incredible underlying data to go along with his goals. Across midfielders, he is first for non-penalty expected goal involvement at almost 0.6 per 90.
Those underlying numbers make for great reading, and the goals and assists stat line could be even better as Barnes has been underperforming slightly on both. Across his career, Barnes has outperformed his expected goals (xG) by a distance. He has scored 72 goals from only 53.7 xG. This shows that he is an excellent finisher who does not need a big chance in order to score.
As a deadly finisher, Barnes is doing exactly what you would want from him and has been taking around 2.5 shots per 90. With Newcastle about to embark on an extremely kind fixture run, this could be a great time to buy.
Newcastle and Barnes face all three promoted sides in their run-up to gameweek 23. They play Burnley twice in this time, who hold the worst defensive record in the league by some distance.
Even if you go for Barnes as a short-term differential, he has the potential to explode for a haul given his fixtures and underlying numbers.
Alexander Isak: Huge Upside at a Cost
Ownership in FPL: 4.9% Price: 10.4m Position: Forward
Given Isak’s form for Newcastle and the £130 million price tag, the fact that going into gameweek 15 he is owned by under 5% of managers is almost unbelievable.
He missed pre-season and has had a stop-start season so far, hampered by injuries. He has now managed three starts in a row as well as his first goal in the league, with a well-taken strike against West Ham in gameweek 13.
Salah has not started the last two games, which may be an indication that Liverpool are preparing for life without the Egyptian as he departs for AFCON in gameweek 16. This will leave a huge void to be filled and Liverpool will be hoping that Isak is the man to do this.
One place Isak could step up immediately would be penalty duties. If Isak were to take over Liverpool’s spot kicks from Salah, that would be a boost to his points potential week on week. Mac Allister and Szoboszlai both have good records and may stake a claim, but penalties might be just what Isak needs to get going this season.
This is a differential play that comes at a huge price tag and is based mainly on the potential Isak offers rather than any exceptional underlying data from this season. His stats so far have been middling; however, you only need to look at last season’s data to remind yourself what he is capable of. In 24/25, he had 0.7 xGI per 90 and was taking over three shots per 90 as well.
Liverpool have a kind fixture run which could see Isak start to return to his former levels.
With Wolves, Leeds and Burnley at home in their next 8, this could be a great time to start looking at Isak again before his ownership begins to increase.
FPL Gameweek 15 Differentials: Final thoughts
With the five free AFCON transfers coming right around the corner, transfers this week will be burning holes in people’s pockets. A differential could be the best place to spend one of those transfers.
Nicola Savona £4.5m is the cheapest route into Forest’s improving defence. He also carries an attacking threat with 0.18 xGI per 90. 0.2% Ownership.
Harvey Barnes £6.4m may be a minutes risk but he is an explosive pick that could help you fly up the ranks. He is first for non-penalty expected goal involvement per 90 among midfielders. 2.4% Ownership.
Alexander Isak £10.4m comes at a cost but has potential for incredible upside. Three starts in a row, and a reminder that he had 23 goals and 6 assists in the 24/25 season. 4.9% Ownership.
Enjoy spending your transfers this week; it is not often that we are forced to use them. A differential could be a great place to go.
