As Haaland missed gameweek 28 through an unknown injury, the captaincy decision for gameweek 29 became less clear-cut. Vice captains could become very important in a week with so much uncertainty.
Ahead of the quick turnaround, we have picked out three alternatives to Haaland who could be viable candidates for the captain’s armband.
Mohamed Salah
While Salah chose not to participate in any of the five goals Liverpool scored in gameweek 28, he is still a captain shout as Liverpool travel to Wolves on Tuesday.
Despite his blank, the Egyptian took three shots and amassed around 0.50 expected goal involvements (xGI). On the other hand, Ekitike, who came away with 15 points, took just two shots and generated 0.35 xGI. On another day, things could have ended very differently for them both.
His opponents in gameweek 29 have improved under Edwards and secured some impressive results in the process. Their win in the derby against Aston Villa in gameweek 28 is one such example. Despite these results, their underlying data does show some big weaknesses.
Since Edwards joined the club, Wolves sit bottom of the league for xG conceded in home games. They have conceded 16 goals at the Molineux during Edwards’ tenure, which is surprising considering some of their performances.
Their left side has some frailties for Salah to exploit. Since Edwards’ first match in gameweek 12, they are second bottom for both crosses conceded and key passes conceded down that flank.
They showed a lack of discipline against Chelsea in gameweek 25, conceding two penalties. If they were to lose their heads in a similar fashion, Salah would stand to benefit greatly.
Despite his lack of goals, Salah’s improvements in his underlying data suggest that goal contributions are on the way. Our model has him top for expected points this week at 5.8, making him a viable alternative to Haaland, even if the Norwegian is deemed fit.
Hugo Ekitike
The real winner in Liverpool’s gameweek 28 rout of West Ham was Hugo Ekitike, who came away with a well-taken goal and two assists. Owners who have held him through his recent underperformances were owed this overperformance from the young Frenchman.
By Ekitike’s standards, he was remarkably quiet in gameweek 28 outside of his goal contributions. Just the two shots and 0.35 xGI is at odds with the underlying data he has been posting recently for Liverpool.
Since his return to the side in gameweek 22, only Morgan Rogers can match his excellent overall shot numbers. In terms of shots in the box, Joao Pedro is the only player who has taken more than Ekitike.
His shot frenzy means that no one has more non-penalty xGI in this time. His goal and two assists could give him the confidence going forward to deliver on his underlying numbers more consistently.
We covered Wolves’ defensive frailties in detail above, but Ekitike stands to benefit from these also. Since the Edwards appointment, only Burnley have conceded more shots in the box. From a Wolves perspective, this matchup is a recipe for disaster with someone as shot-hungry as Ekitike coming to town.
Our model puts him at 4.03 expected points for this week. With over 400,000 transfers in already this week, it will be interesting to see how many give Ekitike the captain’s armband.
Antoine Semenyo
With five goal contributions in his last six, new signing Semenyo has looked completely at home in this Manchester City side. If anyone stands to benefit from Haaland’s absence, it is Antoine Semenyo, who would line up once again as part of a front two.
When Semenyo joined City from Bournemouth in January, not many could have predicted his minutes security. He has been an ever-present in the side, regularly completing the full 90. As the title race ramps up, City cannot afford to let up, particularly if Haaland is out. A start and good minutes feels almost like a guarantee for Semenyo at this point.
Outside of his goal contributions, the Ghanaian has led City in a couple of other key metrics since joining. No one has taken more shots or amassed more xGI. He is also joint top for big chances with Nico O’Reilly.
Forest have changed managers so many times this season that it is hard to draw many conclusions from their data. Vitor Pereira has only been there for five minutes, so it is unclear how they will set up under his stewardship. What we can see is that they sit fourth bottom for expected goals conceded this campaign. They are also particularly weak down their left, where Semenyo likes to operate.
3.95 points are expected by Semenyo this week from our model, but if Haaland were to be officially ruled out, this would surely increase. In his absence, it is possible that Semenyo could take over penalty duties, but this remains to be seen.
