For managers looking to gain ground or those tired of captaining Haaland, gameweek 28 offers a few viable differential captain options.
As the big Norwegian prepares to travel to his boyhood club, we select our favourite alternatives.
Mohamed Salah
After years of being the FPL king, Salah endured his worst-ever start to a season. Things looked like they might be over for the Egyptian before talks with Arne Slot gave him a way back into the team. A great performance from the bench followed these talks before he left for AFCON. He is now back and looking like a genuine captain option for gameweek 28.
His improvement in the second half of the season has been clear to see, and the underlying data supports this. This table shows his per 90 data in gameweeks 1-15 compared with gameweeks 16-27:
Per 90 Data | GW 1-15 | GW16-27 |
Non-Penalty xG | 0.25 | 0.40 |
xA | 0.15 | 0.35 |
Shots in the Box | 2.18 | 2.71 |
Big Chances Created | 0.40 | 0.90 |
These numbers are much more encouraging from Salah, and they offer more confidence in handing him the armband. To help these numbers, Salah has now taken up the role of in-swinging corners and some set pieces from the right. His share of dead-ball situations no longer just includes penalties.
His matchup against West Ham is particularly encouraging. No team has conceded more crosses down their left flank than the Hammers, where they are also third worst for key passes conceded. Somewhat surprisingly, West Ham are also worst in the league for attempts conceded from set pieces. Salah’s new role may come in handy for gameweek 28.
West Ham is also one of Salah’s preferred opponents. In 16 league games, he has eleven goals and seven assists against them.
Our model puts Salah ahead of Haaland for expected points this week, with 6.28. Thanks to his recent improvements and the great match-up, the Egyptian King is a strong alternative if you can get there.
Bruno Fernandes
Despite some below-par showings in his last two, Bruno Fernandes remains a great alternative to Haaland given his numerous routes to points and his recent move back to his preferred position in the ‘ten’.
In gameweek 28, Bruno comes up against a Palace side that have faded since their strong start to the season. There is a bit of a cloud hanging over them with Glasner’s continued digs at the ownership, and their already stretched squad continuing to compete in Europe. They play host to Zrinjski Mostar on Thursday before travelling to Old Trafford on Sunday.
One way Bruno Fernandes could benefit from this fixture is through Palace’s set-piece frailties. They sit third for chances conceded from set-plays. Bruno has a lion’s share of dead-ball situations for United, so could take advantage.
Since his return to the ‘ten’, no one in the league has created more chances or big chances than the United captain. Sesko is doing everything he can from the bench to get a start, and the pressure is mounting on Carrick to give him one. An out-and-out striker playing just ahead of Fernandes could see more of these chances being converted.
With 5.78 projected points, our model has Bruno slightly behind Salah this week. If Salah is out of reach, then United’s talisman offers another differential captaincy route.
Igor Thiago
After back-to-back hauls in gameweeks 20 and 21, it has been a quiet run for Thiago with just one goal in that time. The underlying data is still there, however, and a fixture against Burnley could be just what the Brazilian needs to get himself back on track.
Thiago’s data this season has been excellent, but the appeal of the Burnley fixture cannot be understated. The Clarets are bottom for expected goals against, they are bottom for goals conceded and have let up more big chances than any side in the division. To add to this, they have also conceded six penalties already this season and are about to face the side that has won the most.
As Brentford’s penalty taker, Thiago will be licking his lips at the prospect of this matchup in gameweek 28. After all, he has helped himself to a brace against them once already this season in gameweek 13.
With the fixture out of the way, we can focus on Thiago himself. Despite his recent barren run, he still sits second behind Haaland in the race for the Golden Boot. While a good proportion of his goals have been from the spot, he has been good value for his other returns. His non-penalty xGI puts him eighth among outfielders, with most of this being xG. Two more stats he sits behind only Haaland for are shots in the box and big chances. The data speaks for itself when considering Thiago for the armband.
After a poor first half from Brentford in gameweek 27, they looked much improved in the second period after Schade came on. It would not be a surprise to see him restored to a starting role in gameweek 28, which can only help Thiago’s prospects.
Thiago is behind Salah and Fernandes in our model with 4.98 expected points for gameweek 28. Despite this, he is an excellent option with hat-trick potential, as he has already shown this season.
