Gameweek 25 feels like the calm after the storm of the fixture swings and wildcards that were pulled in gameweek 24. For those looking for some more excitement in the calm, a differential or two could be a solution.
With a combined ownership of just 2.4%, we feature a newly signed goalkeeper, a shot-hungry defender and a midfielder on penalties.
Stefan Ortega
Ownership in FPL: 0.2% Price: £4.7m Position: Goalkeeper
For the second time this season, we could have a new starting goalkeeper for Nottingham Forest. Signing from City, Stefan Ortega arrives at Dyche’s Forest with only 0.2% ownership.
There's a chance for him to start straight away, as Sels has been struggling with injury. Regarding Sels, Dyche told the BBC:
"He's got what we think is a groin injury; he'll have a scan as soon as possible.”
The defence Ortega is joining is showing signs of improvement from their early-season struggles. Since Dyche took charge in October, Forest are fifth in the league for expected goals conceded (xGC).
In typical Dyche fashion, they concede a fair number of shots, sitting mid-table with 51 conceded since his arrival. The important fact is that they have only conceded 27 big chances, the third-best total in the league. This is the defensive style that has helped Dyche’s keepers do well historically, letting them rack up save points while not facing too many dangerous moments.
Ortega’s data in the league is limited, however, since the 2022/23 season, his save percentage is around 73%. This is up there with the best if you look back at the leaders for each of those seasons.
Forest’s run to gameweek 38 is mixed. Importantly, they feature in the gameweek 31 blank and are unlikely to have a blank in future. This reliability could mean that Ortega is a helpful, differential option for someone who does not have a wildcard or a free hit chip to fall back on.
Yerson Mosquera
Ownership in FPL: 0.1% Price: £4.3m Position: Defender
For those looking to take on the staple budget defenders, 0.1% owned Mosquera could provide the answer. He has suffered from some injuries but has become a staple of the new and improved Wolves defence under Rob Edwards.
Since Edwards took over and Mosquera came back into the side, Wolves are fourth in the league for xGC. They have conceded just eight goals in this time, despite having a tough run of fixtures including Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle and Man United.
Mosquera himself is offering much more than just a piece of this improved defence. He has become a secret weapon for Wolves. In the last six games, he leads all defenders in both shots and shots in the box. Two of those were big chances, both of which he failed to convert.
He should consider himself unlucky not to have scored in this time, having racked up 1.13 xG. This is second among defenders, just behind Marc Guehi.
He is also adept in terms of defensive contributions (defcon). While he is behind the league leaders, he has averaged about 9.30 defcon per 90 since Edwards’ appointment.
If we look ahead using the always-helpful ‘Planet FPL’ projected fixtures on our FDR, we see that Wolves are expected to double in gameweek 26 and blank in gameweek 31.
With all his potential avenues to points, at just £4.3m Mosquera is a cheap entry into the double gameweek haul lottery. A word of warning, though, he is on nine yellow cards, so could serve a suspension should he pick up another booking.
Ismaila Sarr
Ownership in FPL: 2.1% Price: £6.3m Position: Midfielder
A new differential talisman has emerged at Crystal Palace. Mateta’s move to AC Milan fell through due to a failed medical, and it appears he will miss the next 3-4 months due to the surgery he requires. This leaves the door open for Sarr to step up.
In gameweek 24, Sarr did just that by taking and scoring Palace’s penalty with confidence. If he has taken over penalty duties as we expect, it certainly elevates him as an FPL prospect.
Sarr plays as one of the ‘10s’ but is extremely advanced in this Palace side. At times, he has taken up a second-striker position, finding himself more advanced than Mateta.
Just like Mateta, he has been wasteful. He has just four goals this season from almost six xG. This was the case last season for him also, where he recorded almost 11 xG, but delivered only eight goals. While these returns are still at a good level, there could be so much more.
Palace are another side that could face a blank in gameweek 31. However, their fixtures on either side of this are tempting.
They may also benefit from two future double gameweeks, should the projected fixtures line up with reality.
If Sarr can step up in Mateta’s absence and deliver on his underlying promise, he could provide real value at just £6.3m. He will be helped by Munoz’s return to the right flank, which will only cause defences more trouble as they attempt to stop them both.
FPL Gameweek 25 Differentials: Round Up
Stefan Ortega £4.7m could join a long line of successful Dyche keepers in FPL 0.2% Ownership.
Yerson Mosquera £4.3m is going shot-crazy and playing his part in a much-improved defence 0.1% Ownership.
Ismaila Sarr £6.3m appears to have taken over penalties and will look to take a step forward in Mateta’s absence 2.1% Ownership.
