Following an extremely low-scoring week all round, we move on to gameweek 23. For those looking for jumps in rank, some well-picked differentials could provide the key.
The hidden gems this week have all been popular picks before, but can now be found at lower ownerships than ever.
Murillo
Ownership in FPL: 1.9% Price: £5.2m Position: Defender
With the introduction of defensive contributions (defcon), there were high hopes for Murillo coming into this season. Long story short, he failed to deliver on that promise and finds himself in just 1.9% of teams.
Things are starting to look up for Murillo and Nottingham Forest. After a tough start, Dyche was brought in, and Forest are fifth for expected goals conceded (xGC) since his appointment. This has not always translated to clean sheets, but this was the case in gameweek 22 when Forest kept the league leaders at bay.
The improvement in defensive numbers comes at a good time for Forest. Confidence will be high after the Arsenal game as Forest face an encouraging long-term fixture horizon.
Gameweek 29 aside, Murillo could be an asset you start every week for this spell.
Coupled with clean sheet potential, Murillo can offer an incredible defcon floor. Since Dyche arrived in gameweek 9, the centre back has recorded 11 defcon per 90. Encouragingly, he has also hit the threshold in four of his last five games.
If Forest start to record some more of the clean sheets they were renowned for last season, with the bonus of defcon points, it could be a great window to own Murillo.
Daniel Muñoz
Ownership in FPL: 5.9% Price: £5.8m Position: Defender
In what has been a turbulent week for Crystal Palace, one positive is the imminent return of Daniel Muñoz. He trained for the first time last week, targeting the Chelsea fixture for his return.
While we await official confirmation on his fitness, it is worth reminding ourselves what Muñoz brings to the table as an FPL asset.
In just 1260 minutes this season, Muñoz recorded three goals and three assists. This is unsurprising given that he is often positioned as more of a second striker than a wing-back.
Amongst defenders with more than 500 minutes played this season, only De Cuyper of Brighton can boast a better expected goal involvement (xGI) per 90 than Muñoz.
His shot numbers and chance creation back up his returns. He has recorded 1.07 shots and 0.2 big chances per 90 this season. His creativity has resulted in him providing 0.29 big chances per 90 for his teammates.
His return will be well-received by his teammates for other reasons too. Before his injury, Palace were sixth for xG and seventh for xGC. Things were looking very positive for them. Since then, these numbers have tailed off completely. From when Muñoz went down with injury, Palace are 13th for xG, and 15th for xGC.
While there will be other factors that have contributed to this fall off, the return of Muñoz will bring some improvement to Palace. This could be aided by their upcoming fixture run.
Burnley, Wolves and Leeds all at home make for very appealing reading. With a likely blank in gameweek 31, they will also have a double gameweek scheduled somewhere down the line.
If he remains healthy, Muñoz will not be such a differential again. While his price may put some people off, there is no denying his pedigree for attacking returns. If Palace can tighten up at the back as well, there could be some hauls awaiting Daniel Muñoz.
Iliman Ndiaye
Ownership in FPL: 3.2% Price: £6.2m Position: Midfielder
Our final differential is another returning asset. Fortunately for Iliman Ndiaye, his absence has been more positive. He returns from AFCON, having won the competition. FPL managers who owned him earlier in the season will be as happy as Everton fans are to see him back.
Ndiaye is an asset that steadily ticks along with points. Before he left for AFCON, he had contributed four goals and two assists. A surprising facet to his game that few expected was his defcon numbers. He hit the threshold on four occasions, securing the extra points for his owners.
His underlying numbers are modest and equally split between chance creation and open play goal threat. What elevates him as an FPL pick is the fact that he is Everton’s penalty taker.
Ndiaye may find that the chances he creates are now more likely result in goals. Thierno Barry endured a tough start to life as Everton’s striker, underperforming his xG by 0.2 per 90. Since Ndiaye left, he has discovered his shooting boots and has since overperformed his xG by 0.44 per 90. Playing alongside a striker with confidence should only improve Ndiaye’s own output.
Ndiaye returns to Everton at a good time with a promising fixture run ahead. Two home matches against promoted sides, along with visits from Bournemouth and Manchester United, could be beneficial for his returns.
There are few penalty-takers available at this price point often. With only 3.2% of teams currently owning Ndiaye, the opportunity exists to target a player who has multiple routes to points.
FPL Gameweek 23 Differentials: Round Up
Murillo £5.2m is offering a steady floor of defcon as part of a much-improved defence 1.9% Ownership.
Daniel Muñoz £5.8m is more of a striker than a defender at times, with a great long-term fixture run 5.9% Ownership.
Iliman Ndiaye £6.2m returns to Everton to take up his role as their penalty taker 3.2% Ownership.
