If we looked at gameweek 23 a few weeks ago, captaincy would not even have been a consideration with Haaland at home to Wolves. However, with just the one goal from a penalty in his last five, some FPL managers are starting to look elsewhere.
In this article, we look at the data behind Haaland’s recent form and consider the best captaincy choices for the upcoming gameweek.
Erling Haaland
Guardiola was quoted as saying that Haaland was ‘exhausted’. This is unsurprising considering the minutes in his legs already this season. The full 90 minutes away at Bodo/Glimt will have done little to alleviate these concerns.
Haaland’s numbers from gameweek 18 onwards have been concerning. Here is a comparison of his key underlying data in gameweeks 1-17 vs 18-22.
Stat (per appearance) | Gameweeks 1-17 | Gameweeks 18-22 |
Non-Penalty xG | 0.90 | 0.40 |
Shots in the box | 3.7 | 3 |
Big Chances | 1.9 | 0.8 |
As we can see, there has been a fall off. What is worth noting, however, is that his numbers are still good. 3 shots in the box a game is top three among forwards for this spell.
It is also important to remember that in football, a five-game window is a minuscule sample size. While it is indicative of some bad form, it cannot be relied on to accurately predict Haaland’s future returns. It is more helpful to consider the thousands of minutes of incredible data we have from him in the league.
Wolves have improved of late. Since Rob Edwards’ appointment, they sit 8th for expected goals conceded (xGC). They have recorded some impressive results recently, keeping a clean sheet against Newcastle, drawing away at Manchester United, and keeping Arsenal and Liverpool relatively quiet.
Despite Haaland’s recent form and the improvement of Wolves, he is top of our expected points model for this gameweek. 6.2 points are predicted for the Norwegian in gameweek 23.
Looking at past seasons, Haaland loves playing Wolves. In six appearances, he has put 10 goals past them. This could be the matchup that Haaland needs to turn his form around.
Another point in Haaland’s favour is the lack of standout options elsewhere. Saka’s minutes do not feel as secure, Palmer is struggling for fitness, and the returning Salah is yet to be a factor this season. There are still some interesting alternatives, however.
Hugo Ekitike
One such alternative could be Liverpool centre forward Hugo Ekitike. He has frustrated owners recently, with blanks against Burnley and Leeds and just an assist against Wolves. These disappointing returns were despite excellent underlying data.
If we look at the Burnley game alone, Ekitike recorded eight shots and amassed 1.20 expected goal involvements (xGI).
Against Leeds, it was four shots and 1.47 xGI. Wolves, four shots again and 0.67xGI. Owners can consider themselves extremely unlucky not to have come away with more points from these games.
Could the points therefore be coming in gameweek 23 away at Bournemouth?
Incredibly, Bournemouth lead the league in xGC at home this season. This is in stark comparison to their away defensive form, where they sit second bottom.
Despite these strong defensive numbers, Bournemouth have lost a few players recently. Injuries and transfers away have left them somewhat threadbare, which is encouraging for Ekitike.
All told, our model projects 5.2 expected points for the Liverpool star.
Igor Thiago
After a quiet December, Igor Thiago exploded back to life in gameweeks 20 and 21, scoring five goals in the process. A blank away to Chelsea in gameweek 22 should not discourage those considering Thiago for the armband.
Brentford were extremely unlucky not to score in that game, and if they had, the game state could have afforded Thiago more joy.
A fixture against a Forest side with midweek commitments awaits the league’s 2nd-highest goalscorer this week. While they have shown improvement under Dyche, perhaps tired legs could be a factor as they travel to Brentford in what will be their fifth away game out of their last six matches.
At home, Brentford are fifth for xG this campaign. The Bees love playing at the Gtech, where Thiago has scored nine of his 16 goals.
With penalties in his locker, good data and what could be a great match-up, you could be forgiven for considering Thiago this week. Our model has him at 4.8 expected points.
FPL Gameweek 23 Captaincy: Final thoughts
It will take a brave manager to go against Erling Haaland, despite the recent performances and Wolves’ improvements. No one in the league has more goals, shots or xG than Haaland, and this is even more apparent when you look at his data at the Etihad.
With Arsenal facing a resurgent Man United side this week, Guardiola’s men will see this as a huge opportunity to put some pressure on the league leaders. A big performance is required after their recent results.
In the post-match interview after the loss against Bodo, Haaland took full responsibility for his lack of goals. Given his mentality, he will be doing everything in his power to ensure this is put right.
Hugo Ekitike is an intriguing prospect. His data this season, especially in his last few games, has been excellent. While he could do well, the matchup is not the most encouraging for a captain. Bournemouth have been very solid at home and could prove a stern test for Ekitike and Liverpool.
One more name to consider is Igor Thiago. Brentford’s main man goes into this appealing fixture full of confidence following his recent return to form. Having penalties is a bonus which provides a layer of comfort that Ekitike cannot offer.
Ultimately, Haaland is our top captaincy pick this week, but the fact that there are alternatives to consider can only be good for FPL and what the rest of the season has in store. Good luck, and enjoy making your decisions this week.
