Following the launch of our fixture difficulty rating tool (FDR), we analyse the fixture landscape to identify the teams we should target and avoid for our FPL picks.
Teams to Target
Arsenal
Anyone without three Arsenal assets should be planning to remedy this as soon as possible. Given their strength and kind fixture schedule, Arsenal sit atop the FDR table for the foreseeable future.
With the help of the Planet FPL projected fixtures, we see that Arsenal also have the possibility of a double gameweek in 26. If you look further ahead, they are also projected a blank in gameweek 31. These could come into play should Arsenal reach the League Cup final.
Until the potential blank gameweek, you could comfortably start your Arsenal assets in every fixture on current form.
Fourth for xG and first for xG conceded (xGC), Arsenal have options in both attack and defence. We looked at our favourites here, earlier this week.
Bournemouth
The Cherries have been one of the most entertaining teams to watch this season, for both good and bad reasons. Their fixtures of late have been difficult, but between now and gameweek 31, they embark on a promising run.
Semenyo has joined Manchester City, so there is room for some players to step up and onto our FPL radars.
Marcus Tavernier (£5.5m) could be the big beneficiary of Semenyo’s departure. With Kluivert out, there were some doubts as to who the main penalty taker would be. Tavernier looks set to step into this role, which will be in addition to his share of set pieces.
Another interesting option could be the budget forward Kroupi Junior (£4.6m). In only 568 minutes this season, Kroupi has already registered seven goals. His underlying numbers are strong, too. He is at 0.6 expected goal involvement (xGI) per 90, and around 2.5 shots per 90 as well. With Semenyo gone, Bournemouth could begin to rely on Kroupi more heavily during these fixtures.
With two middling fixtures in the next two, some caution is advised. These two fixtures could provide some valuable time to assess the Bournemouth options ahead of a buy window in gameweek 24.
Chelsea
In terms of fixture runs, it does not get much better than Chelsea’s next six. In West Ham, Wolves, Leeds and Burnley, you have four out of the five worst teams for goals conceded this season.
With a new manager at the helm and the help of these fixtures, Chelsea’s FPL assets could be worthy of investment.
A huge question will be whether Liam Rosenior’s appointment can help get Cole Palmer (£10.4m) back to his best. In a season hampered by injury so far, it is worth remembering he had 60 goal involvements in the two campaigns before this one. Even the hint of a return to form could be enough to tempt many to jump on.
Enzo Fernandez (£6.4m) has been Chelsea’s bright spark so far. Eight goal contributions could have been even more had he delivered on his 11.7 xGI. His role will be worth monitoring in the new system. If he is given license to get forward, it would not be surprising to see his returns continue.
Managers looking for defensive reinforcements could consider Treboh Chalobah (£5.5m) once again. Chelsea’s most nailed centre back already has three goals and an assist, while hitting the defcon threshold nine times.
Teams to Avoid
Brentford
The Bees have surprised many this season and find themselves fifth in the table. However, managers considering their assets should be aware that the fixtures over the next six gameweeks are not kind.
Igor Thiago (£7.1m) went through a bad spell but hasrecently rediscovered his form, scoring five goals in two games. This has left many sellers regretting their decision and looking to reverse it. Those considering this move should be aware of his upcoming run and consider if the timing is right.
Nathan Collins (£5.0m) and Caoimhin Kelleher (£4.5m), on the other hand, could be okay to hold throughout this spell. Both are budget options compared to Thiago and can be benched if necessary. Given the trickier fixtures, Collins is more likely to secure defcon, while Kelleher is more likely to get save points. Managers with Kelleher in the team may be hoping that penalties are given away too, given his record at saving them.
Manchester United
The Manchester derby, followed by a trip to league leaders Arsenal, is as tough a start as it comes for new manager Michael Carrick. When sorting by the next two gameweeks, United sit bottom of our FDR table.
Following his return from injury, Bruno Fernandes (£9.1m) is high on radars. A quick look at Manchester United’s next two fixtures would suggest that he is not a priority transfer in just yet.
These two fixtures allow for FPL managers to take a watching brief to see how Manchester United line up and how the players fit into Carrick’s vision. They then go on a decent run of fixtures from gameweek 24 onwards, which could be a time to buy if things are looking positive.
In what will likely be a 4-2-3-1 shape, it will be interesting to see which forward options Carrick prefers. If Amad Diallo (£6.2m) is deployed higher up the pitch, he could make for a strong budget midfield pick from gameweek 24.
Benjamin Sesko (£7.2m) should also be monitored as a potential forward asset. In the last three, no one has more shots than the Slovenian forward, who seems to be finding his feet in the league.
Gameweek 22 Fixture Focus: Final Thoughts
Arsenal benefit from a kind fixture run stretching all the way to gameweek 30. They could even have a double gameweek in this time and have great options in defence and midfield.
Bournemouth also benefit from a strong long-term fixture run. Whoever emerges from Semenyo’s shadow could make for a shrewd pick.
Chelsea start the new era with an incredible six-game run. There could be options across the team, should things click under the new manager.
On the other hand, Brentford and Manchester United have much less appealing short-term horizons. Caution is advised for anyone considering FPL assets from these sides.
