It is a quick turnaround this week as we look forward to the Tuesday FPL deadline. These low-owned differentials all have the potential to provide upside during the festive fixtures.
We look at three players with less than 10% ownership who could help bring some green arrows this holiday season.
Lewis Hall
Ownership in FPL: 1.4% Price: £5.2m Position: Defender
If anyone can feel aggrieved not to have got a return from the weekend, it is Lewis Hall, who put in an all-around great display. He created a chance, completed 7 out of 8 dribbles, and took 3 shots, one of which hit the woodwork.
The good news from his blank is that he is still flying under the radar and could provide some differential returns over the coming weeks.
The big appeal with Hall is firstly Newcastle’s fixtures. In the next five games, they face two promoted sides and Wolves. They also host a struggling Crystal Palace. High-flying Aston Villa visit St. James’ at the end of this run, which, on paper, is not the best. However, Newcastle have won the last four at home to Villa, keeping four clean sheets and scoring 13 goals in the process.
With Dan Burn out for a few weeks, and Tino Livramento also nursing a knee injury, Hall’s minutes should be very secure for this kind run of fixtures.
Newcastle have struggled to keep clean sheets this season. However, they are still third in the league for expected goals conceded (xGC). If you are buying Hall, you are hoping that Newcastle can find a way to start delivering on their underlying numbers
While Hall has a modest 0.16 expected goal involvement per 90 this season, he also has set pieces as a potential route to points. Being left-footed, he takes Newcastle’s in swinging corners from the right as well as some free kicks. With targets like Schar, Thiaw and Woltemade to aim for, returns from these situations could be coming soon.
If Newcastle can capitalise on their upcoming fixtures and turn things around defensively, Hall could be well-positioned to provide some good returns.
James Tarkowski
Ownership in FPL: 8.1% Price: £5.5m Position: Defender
A surprisingly low number of teams currently own James Tarkowski. Selected by just 8.1% of managers, last season’s leader in defensive contributions (defcon) could be about to embark on a great run.
The huge appeal with Tarkowski is his defcon reliability. He is currently 4th in the league for defcon with 188 across the season. This means he has reached the threshold in over 66% of matches.
Everton appear to be built for defcons. His partner at the back, Michael Keane (our first differential from gameweek 9), is also right up there with 182 to his name. With Branthwaite making his way back from injury over the coming weeks, Keane’s run in the team may be coming to an end. However, Branthwaite is highly thought of, and this could bode well for Tarkowski’s future returns.
It is not just Branthwaite who will be returning soon. Everton are without a crop of players at AFCON, as well as Dewsbury-Hall. As these players start to return, you would expect Everton and Tarkowski to go from strength to strength.
The Toffees have allowed just 20 goals this season, keeping 7 clean sheets. This is only 3 more goals than Manchester City have conceded, and the same number of clean sheets as Crystal Palace.
There could be no better time to own Tarkowski this season, as Everton embark on an incredible 11-game fixture run.
Wolves, Leeds and Burnley at home look promising for Tarkowski’s clean sheet potential. Everton also avoid any of last season’s top four.
He may come at a cost, but Tarkowski’s defcon potential, coupled with Everton’s penchant for clean sheets, should mean that points will continue to tick along for managers who place their trust in James Tarkowski.
Pedro Neto
Ownership in FPL: 8.8% Price: £7.3m Position: Midfielder
Completing our list of differentials for this week is the Chelsea winger Pedro Neto. He is owned by 8.8% of FPL managers, but only 4.3% of managers in the top 10k. This could be a pick who helps to chase down that elite club at the top of the rankings.
Pedro Neto has been a mainstay in the Chelsea XI this season, starting 17 matches. He has also been very consistently getting good minutes and has gone past the 80-minute mark on 12 occasions.
This run in the team has allowed him to rack up 5 goals and 3 assists already this campaign. Now that Palmer has returned, more space may be afforded to Pedro Neto, resulting in more goal involvement.
Neto offers an equal goal and assist threat. He is at around 0.2 per 90 for both xG and xA. Interestingly, he is also creating 1.86 chances and taking 1.86 shots per 90. Amongst midfielders, he is top 5 in the league for passes completed in the final third.
These numbers suggest that he is very active and should continue to see returns, especially when you consider that Neto is also on some corners and set pieces for Chelsea.
The upcoming fixtures are mixed, but no one has a better February run of games than Chelsea, who will face West Ham, Wolves, Leeds and Burnley in that month alone.
For those looking at the midfield landscape and not feeling much inspiration, Pedro Neto could provide a long-term differential solution.
FPL Gameweek 19 Differentials: Round Up
Lewis Hall £5.2m has a great run of games coming up, with the potential for returns both through open play and set pieces. 1.4% Ownership.
James Tarkowski £5.5m is a defcon machine with one of the best fixture runs in the league. 8.1% Ownership.
Pedro Neto £7.3m offers both goal and assist threat, as well as a great long-term horizon. 8.8% Ownership.
