We turn our attention to differentials for Fantasy Premier League gameweek 18, with the Friday deadline fast approaching.
These players all have low ownership, meaning they could be flying under the radar as we head into the Christmas pile-up.
Patrick Dorgu
Ownership in FPL: 2.2% Price: £4.1m Position: Defender
Now that Amad and Mazraoui have gone to AFCON, the wing-back spots at Manchester United have opened up kindly for Dalot and Dorgu to make their own.
At just £4.1m, Dorgu is of particular interest. The young Dane has struggled to get consistent minutes this season yet still has two assists to his name. One of these came at the weekend, and he was unlucky not to have another with Cunha missing a header from close range.
Despite only having 850 minutes so far, Dorgu’s underlying data is promising. His expected goal involvement (xGI) is hovering at around 0.2 per 90. For reference, this is similar to Calafiori and only 0.07 behind Munoz.
In these limited minutes, his attacking nature has resulted in him creating over 1.35 chances per 90. He has also created 0.42 big chances per 90, which puts him third amongst defenders with over 10 appearances this season.
This creativity will be helpful to his bonus potential, which could get a further boost if his defensive contribution (defcon) numbers increase. He is averaging only 6.5 per 90 this season, but against Villa at the weekend, he got nine. Perhaps this is a sign of what could be possible for him with more consistent starts.
Manchester United’s fixtures could not be kinder while their players are at AFCON. This lines up nicely with Dorgu’s run in the team.
United’s defensive numbers have not been great this season, but the attacking potential is there for Dorgu as a budget differential to look at this week.
Anton Stach
Ownership in FPL: 2.4% Price: £4.8m Position: Midfielder
Another differential option who is kind on the budget is Anton Stach of Leeds. The big midfielder recovered from his injury to rack up two goals and two assists in his last four, even more impressive when you consider he faced Chelsea and Liverpool during this time.
At just £4.8m, Stach offers a lot of value. To start with, he takes corners from both sides as well as some set pieces. In fact, no one in the league has taken as many corners as his 21 in the last four weeks. He also scored a well-taken free kick at the weekend to seal the win against Palace
It is not just set piece threat that he offers. His shot numbers have also been strong for such a cheap midfielder, especially in recent weeks. On the season, he is averaging 2.22 shots per 90, but over the last four games, this output has increased to over 3.25 shots per 90. This increase in shots has coincided with Leeds bringing in an extra central defender to the line-up. This change may have afforded Stach more license to get forward and take these shots on.
Stach has chipped in with defcon points this season as well. He has hit the threshold four times and come very close on a few occasions. When fit, he plays 90 minutes, which gives him a good chance at further defcon points in weeks to come.
His creativity should also not be ignored. Stach is up there with Cherki and Fernandes for chances created in the last four matches. Across the season, he is creating a chance roughly every 40 minutes he plays.
With Dewsbury-Hall out currently, managers could do much worse than a swap to Anton Stach, who is providing a lot of avenues to points at such a low cost.
Jarrod Bowen
Ownership in FPL: 7.1% Price: £7.6m Position: Forward
Jarrod Bowen is owned by just 7.1% of managers despite being the fourth-highest scoring forward in the game. For those who can’t quite afford Ekitike, or are getting frustrated with Thiago, Bowen could provide a steady stream of differential points.
Bowen is West Ham’s talisman. He is the only forward in the league who has played every minute of every match. This reliability is a great asset. His availability has led to him being third behind Haaland and Mateta for shots amongst forwards this season.
His shot numbers have been steadily increasing as well. Between gameweeks one and nine, he was taking around 2.1 shots per 90. Since gameweek ten, this has jumped up to 3 shots per 90, which is much more encouraging.
A large part of Bowen’s FPL appeal is that he is a bonus point magnet. He has 14 on the season already. A goal for him is usually worth seven points, as he nearly always then gets the maximum bonus given his strong baseline compared to his teammates.
Bowen has a great run of fixtures long term, lasting up to gameweek 27.
He will face two of the promoted sides, as well as Wolves in this time. His improvement in shot numbers, combined with the kind fixtures, could mean that this is a good time to jump on Bowen.
FPL Gameweek 18 Differentials: Round Up
Patrick Dorgu £4.1m has promising underlying attacking numbers and is heading into a kind run of fixtures. 2.2% Ownership.
Anton Stach £4.8m has many avenues to points and is playing in a more attacking role of late. 2.4% Ownership.
Jarrod Bowen £7.6m is taking on more shots than before, just in time for an excellent long-term fixture horizon. 7.1% Ownership.
