Now that the madness of AFCON departures and five free transfers is out of the way, the focus shifts to gameweek 17 and the fixtures beyond to determine which teams we should target or be wary of.
Teams to Target
Liverpool
With home games against Wolves and Leeds in the next four, Liverpool assets will be on a lot of FPL managers’ radars. Either side of those fixtures are visits to an inconsistent Spurs side and Fulham, who have just lost several key starters to AFCON.
Four goals in his last two starts mean that Hugo Ekitike (£8.6m) is high on people’s watchlists. He is a real threat, taking 12 shots in those two starts against Brighton and Leeds. If he can continue to hold the starting role for this run, you wouldn’t be surprised to see more returns.
Defensively, Liverpool have improved recently. Their numbers across the season have been well below par; however, since the start of November, they are top for non-penalty expected goals conceded (npxGC). Virgil van Dijk (£5.9m) could again be worthy of investment. He has averaged over 10 defensive contributions (defcon) per 90 this season.
Everton
A team to consider for long-term assets is Everton. Their run to gameweek 29 is incredible, with only the Arsenal, Aston Villa and Newcastle fixtures to worry about in that time.
Given their kind fixture run, there could be some options to set and forget. Michael Keane (£4.5m) and James Tarkowski (£5.5m) offer routes into a defence with six clean sheets this season. They both also average just over 10 defcon per 90, meaning they will often hit the threshold for the extra two points.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£5.1m) could provide a lot of value, should his injury not be as serious as first feared. He has some set-piece share and could be in line for penalty duties with Ndiaye now out of the picture. Alongside his four goals and three assists, he has also contributed with defcon points three times, which has been a nice bonus.
Manchester City
There is a long horizon of kind fixtures awaiting Man City as they push Arsenal for the top spot. Liverpool at Anfield looks to be the trickiest fixture in this spell, and that does not come until gameweek 25. With most managers already owning Haaland and Foden, who to pick for the third spot could be where the gains are made.
City’s defence in terms of xGC is bettered only by that of their title rivals, Arsenal. Nico O’Reilly (£5.3m) could be a standout option for those looking to add a third City asset. He is one of the most attacking defenders in the league, ranking 6th for shots in the box and 5th for expected goal involvement (xGI) per 90.
Another option to consider would be Rayan Cherki (£6.5m). He has now started City’s last two games, providing three assists. His non-penalty xGI (npxGI) leads all midfielders bar Fulham’s Chukwueze. He is certainly a maverick option with more minutes risk attached but could pay off for those willing to gamble.
Teams to Avoid
Chelsea
The Blues have been having a solid season so far. They are 4th not only in the table, but also in terms of expected goals for and against. Their near-term fixtures are something to be wary of for those looking to invest, however.
Three of their next five are away from home, two of which are against Newcastle and Man City, whose home form, particularly in an attacking sense, has been excellent this season. Those who already own Chelsea defenders will almost certainly be looking to bench them in those fixtures.
Going into this difficult spell over Christmas, they also have their League Cup quarter-final ahead of gameweek 17. This will be worth closely monitoring in case of any injuries, and the additional fixture certainly won’t benefit them in terms of freshness.
All this being said, Chelsea’s defence has continued to grind out clean sheets this season. They are level with Arsenal with eight. Robert Sanchez (£4.9m) and Trevoh Chalobah (£5.5m) are worth holding, even if you need to bench them a couple of times in this run.
Aston Villa
After a slow start, Aston Villa have really kicked on, finding themselves third, only three points behind Arsenal. They don’t have the underlying data to support such a strong league position at this stage, yet they have found a way. They have won 10 of their last 11, including victories over Arsenal and Man City.
These big wins may suggest that fixtures don’t matter for them; however, both the Arsenal and City wins came at Villa Park. Villa’s home form has been formidable, having lost just once there all season. Three of their next five are away from home, against very difficult opponents.
These fixtures could mean that it is time to take on Aston Villa assets such as Matty Cash (£4.9m) and Morgan Rogers (£7.1m). Both have been popular recently, but neither has the underlying data to support a continuation of such returns.
Gameweek 17 Fixture Focus: Final Thoughts
Games will be coming thick and fast with the Christmas pile-up looming. Having a good understanding of the fixture landscape will set you up well to navigate this tricky period in FPL.
Liverpool have great short-term fixtures and can be considered for both attacking and defensive assets given their improvements.
Everton and Manchester City both offer kind long-term horizons. Everton can provide some strong budget options, while picking the right third City asset could be a great way to make some gains.
In contrast, Aston Villa and Chelsea are facing difficult runs in the short term. There are popular assets on each team to be wary of at this time, but they could be worth hiding on the bench if you can afford that luxury.
