Every manager has been given five free transfers to spend this week, so there may be no better time in the season to target a differential.
Players are going to AFCON, injuries are mounting, and the Christmas pile-up has not even started. The template will be getting a shake-up this week, which could mean that a carefully selected differential (or two) fires you up the ranks going into the new year.
Piero Hincapie
Ownership in FPL: 0.6% Price: £5.4m Position: Defender
Arsenal’s defence has been rock solid this season. With Gabriel injured, Hincapie, at only 0.6% ownership, has found his way into the starting backline as the left-sided centre back. He has started the last four and looks set to continue until Gabriel is fit again.
Gabriel’s return date is not set in stone, with sometime around the new year being cited. This could leave the door open for lowly owned Hincapie to start in a great run of fixtures, and potentially more if Gabriel’s recovery faces any setbacks.
Three of Arsenal’s next four are at home, which bodes very well for their already great clean-sheet prospects. Across seven home games, Arsenal have conceded just two goals this season.
During Hincapie’s first three starts, they only allowed an average of 0.4 expected goals conceded (xGC) per game. Despite these encouraging numbers in gameweeks 12-14, their performance away to Villa in gameweek 15 was a rough outing where they conceded over 2.5 xGC. However, some of this can be put down to Aston Villa’s powerful home form this season.
His defensive contribution (defcon) numbers have also given some cause for optimism. He has averaged almost 9 a match across his last four, which suggests that he could hit the threshold in some of these upcoming matches.
While admittedly Hincapie could be a short-term differential, the upside is there for the run he has in the team. There is no defence better than Arsenal’s in the league, and with the potential for three home starts in the next four, Hincapie could fill the gap in a team looking for a differential defender for this spell.
Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez
Ownership in FPL: 2.7% and 1.6% Price: £5.3m and £6.2m Position: Midfielder and Forward
Unfortunately, Wilson and Raul do not come as a buy-one-get-one-free deal when you bring one of them into your team. Given how they combined for Wilson’s goal at the weekend against Palace, this is really a shame. It is rare for two differentials from the same team to be so appealing at the same moment, so they warrant consideration depending on the needs of your squad.
A huge factor in Wilson and Raul’s favour is their next three fixtures. In terms of a block of three matches, it does not really get much better than this.
In Burnley, Forest and West Ham, you have three of the four worst defences in the league for xGC. When searching for a differential, a fixture run like this cannot be overlooked.
Wilson has always been an interesting prospect in FPL, but lacked the minutes security to deliver consistent points. This season, he has only failed to start twice, which suggests this may be changing. He has two goals and two assists in his last three matches and looks to be in great form if his goal at the weekend is anything to go by. He is a good finisher, so he does not require huge chances or great underlying data to deliver points.
Raul Jimenez has become a mainstay in the team following Muniz’s injury. With no other senior strikers, he has been leading the line since gameweek 8. His returns have been modest, but Fulham have also had a relatively difficult run in that time. With the next three games, his output could easily increase. He also takes Fulham’s penalties, and his three opponents have conceded 10 penalties between them this season.
Mason Mount
Ownership in FPL: 0.4% Price: £5.9m Position: Midfielder
Amorim has been on record about how much he loves Mason Mount. With Mbeumo heading to AFCON shortly, this could open the door to even more minutes for him in the coming weeks.
Coming back from injury, Mount has seen his minutes managed heavily this season. He has now started two of the last three and played over 80 minutes in both of those.
Amorim will be looking for solutions with Mbeumo making his way to AFCON. Mount is someone who can step up and play in one of the number 10 positions behind the striker. With his match sharpness increasing, this could be a good time to own him.
It is hard to judge him on his underlying data this season due to his sporadic minutes, but he now has two goals in his last two starts and put in a man-of-the-match performance against Wolves.
Manchester United’s fixtures are decent in the medium term. Other than away to Aston Villa, there is potential for goals in all these games.
Their next opponents, Bournemouth, have been particularly bad on their travels this season, having conceded the second-most goals in the league. With Mount offering both goals and creativity, it would not be a great surprise at all to see him involved in the upcoming fixtures.
FPL Gameweek 16 Differentials: Round Up
A gift of five free transfers is not something that we have seen before. If you are in the market to spend some of these free transfers on a differential, these picks deserve a look.
Piero Hincapie £5.4m is a short-term route into the best defence in the league. He offers the potential for defcon and a great chance of clean sheets. 0.6% Ownership.
Harry Wilson £5.3m & Raul Jimenez £6.2m both benefit from incredible fixtures in their next three. Wilson is in great form, and Raul has the starting striker role with penalties to boot. 2.7% and 1.6% Ownership.
Mason Mount £5.9m is a budget option who has the potential for a big step forward with Mbeumo at AFCON. Two goals in his last two starts may be a sign of things to come. 0.4% Ownership.
