Plenty of FPL managers are activating their free hit chip for gameweek 13. This may be for good reason, as there are tougher fixtures in store for Arsenal, Chelsea and Man United, while teams such as Man City and Liverpool have more favourable fixtures. These factors are making gameweek 13 a popular choice for those who still have the chip in hand.
Teams and Players to Target on Free Hit
Manchester City:
With a great home fixture against Leeds, three City players should be a consideration. Leeds have conceded 15 goals already on their travels, which is the third worst in the league. City, on the other hand, have scored the most goals at home with 16, and lead the league for expected goals.
Erling Haaland (£14.9m) needs no explanation and will be captained by most. Identifying the two next best City assets is where it gets interesting.
Nico O’Reilly (£5.0m) is taking the third-most shots per 90, while he also has around 0.2 expected goal involvement (xGI) per 90, putting him in the top ten. A defensive double-up could be considered, given that City have conceded only four goals at home this season, although no option provides the same attacking numbers as O’Reilly.
Jeremy Doku (£6.5m) feels like a perfect free hit punt. An explosive player on his day, but always a rotation risk. There is no early kick off in gameweek 13, so there may be lineup news prior to the deadline. If you hear Doku is starting, or are willing to take the risk regardless, he could provide a lot of value. He has 0.45 xGI per 90 and recently put Liverpool to the sword with a great performance.
Liverpool:
Speaking of Liverpool, to say they have struggled to get going this season would be a huge understatement. That said, they face a West Ham side that have conceded the second most goals so far this season.
Mo Salah (£14.2m) warrants consideration on a free hit. His numbers have been improving from the start of the season, and he leads the league in shots in the box per 90 over the last six games.
Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.6m) offers a more budget route into the Liverpool side. He gets around 11.5 defensive contributions (defcons) per 90, providing a solid floor. He has modest attacking output, but it is well known that he has a great strike in his locker.
Virgil van Dijk (£6.0) is one of the league leaders in defcon, averaging almost 11 per 90 this season. While he has not scored yet, he has a great chance this week as West Ham have conceded the most chances in the league from set pieces. Liverpool’s defensive struggles are well-documented, but their captain could be worthy of a spot on a free hit.
Brentford:
A great fixture against Burnley, the worst defence in the league, awaits Brentford in gameweek 13. With four wins and 12 goals at home this season, there could be some great options for those on free hit.
Igor Thiago (£6.5m) is behind only Haaland for points among forward options this season. Amazingly, four of his goals have come from the penalty spot this season. Burnley could play right into Thiago’s hands as they have given away the most penalties of any team (3).
Kevin Schade (£7.0m) and Dango Ouattara (£6.0m) also stand to benefit from Burnley’s porous defence. Dango has contributed to Thiago’s success, winning a league-leading three penalties this year. Schade has also chipped in with one. They are both taking a good number of shots in the box, with just under 2.0 per 90 for Dango and 1.7 per 90 for Schade. Dango also leads the pair in terms of xGI, although he has been quiet in his last three matches.
Nathan Collins (£4.9m) is in the top ten for defcons this season. His partner at the back Sepp van den Berg (£4.5m) is not far behind either. Neither offer much goal threat, but considering the fixture and their steady floor, there could be value.
Nottingham Forest:
It’s a small sample size, but things seem to be looking up for Forest following Sean Dyche’s arrival. Since he has come in, Forest are third in the league for expected goals against, in typical Sean Dyche style.
Matz Sels (£4.7m) was excellent last season. Managers who are familiar with old Dyche teams will know that the keeper is often one of the top budget picks in FPL. With things starting to improve, Sels could be a shrewd pick on free hit.
Murillo (£5.3m) is fresh off the back of a 17-point haul against Liverpool. One of last season’s leaders in defensive contributions, he has also been a victim of Forest’s poor start. These numbers are starting to pick up again for him, though, averaging about 12 per 90 in his four games under Dyche.
Elliot Anderson (£5.3m) and Morgan Gibbs-White (£7.3m) offer two strong options at different midfield price points. Anderson has been so consistent with defcon points this year, while also chipping in with two assists and a goal. He takes a good share of set pieces as well, making him a solid budget pick. Gibbs-White is enjoying the Dyche era with three goals in the last three matches. He missed his last penalty, but as far as we know he still is on duty should Forest get another this week.
Honourable Mentions:
Aston Villa have a great fixture at home to Wolves. They have been getting the job done this season and are in the top four. Morgan Rogers (£6.8m) never has the best underlying numbers but always finds a route to points. He has three goals and two assists. Matty Cash (£4.6m) has two goals on the season and is part of a solid backline with two clean sheets in the last four.
Crystal Palace have an intriguing match against a Man United side who employ a very similar shape. Palace are joint second for clean sheets in the league. A defender could therefore be a smart pick, and Daniel Munoz (£5.9m) leads the way. He has two goals and three assists already, and a very healthy 0.27 xGI per 90.
Arsenal go to Stamford Bridge, which should be a tough game on paper. However, this is off the back of keeping Spurs to under 0.07 expected goals in gameweek 12. The defence is elite and capable of keeping a clean sheet against anyone. Jurrien Timber (£6.3m) offers the most xGI per 90 of all their defenders. Riccardo Calafiori (£5.8m) trails him slightly but is still a great option.
Gameweek 13 Free Hit Draft
Free hit is a great time to lean into the fixtures and try to capitalise on matchups and players that have caught your eye.
Good luck with your decisions this week. We hope you enjoy chasing the upside that can be gained using the free hit chip.
