Reports suggest that Arsenal could be without defender Gabriel until January, following an injury on international duty. In over 43% of teams at the time of writing, Gabriel’s injury leaves many managers with the dilemma of who to replace him with.
With no official confirmation yet, it may be worth holding on for a couple of days for more news. However, in this article, we select our favourite replacements should Gabriel require a transfer out.
William Saliba, Jurrien Timber or Ricardo Calafiori - Arsenal
Prices: £6.0m, £6.1m and £5.8m
The first option that many will consider is a straight swap to another Arsenal defender. Arsenal lead the league defensively, with only six expected goals against across 11 matches. For context on how impressive this is, the next best is Manchester City, who have allowed 10.3.
Gabriel has been Arsenal’s defensive contribution (defcon) magnet this season. He has been averaging around nine per 90. Saliba and Timber trail at around six each, with Calafiori further back with just under five. You would expect Saliba to step up in Gabriel’s absence, but whether this translates to an increase in defcon remains to be seen.
Gabriel’s 0.20 expected goal involvement (xGI) per 90 will leave a big hole, but Timber and Calafiori have been very productive themselves so far this season. Respectively, they have offered a very healthy 0.26 and 0.28 xGI per 90.
A concern for Calafiori could be his minutes. He withdrew from the Italy camp this break and has seen early substitutions in seven games this season. With the December fixture pile-up just around the corner, we could see an occasional benching.
Gabriel could prove to be a big miss for Arsenal’s backline. One of Mosquera or Hincapie, who were signed in the summer, would be expected to fill in. With both having played limited minutes so far, it remains to be seen how Arsenal will fare in Gabriel’s absence.
To try and forecast this, we can look at Arsenal’s defensive numbers last season with and without Gabriel. Before his season-ending injury in early April, Arsenal were first in the league for expected goals against. They then slipped to 11th for the subsequent run of games, highlighting the impact losing Gabriel had.
Considering all these factors, Timber or Saliba feel to be the stronger options should you wish to go for a direct Arsenal replacement. Timber has the underlying attacking data, while Saliba has the potential to step up and provide more defensive contributions.
Marcos Senesi - Bournemouth
Price: £5.0m
An option that many will already own, but Marcos Senesi should be considered if he is not in your team.
Senesi has recorded 13 defcons per 90 so far this season, which puts him above any other defender. To add to this, he has also chipped in with two assists.
Bournemouth have been solid defensively at home. They have only conceded twice in five matches, leading the league at home in expected goals against. However, away from home, it has been a different story. 16 goals conceded in six matches is beaten only by Burnley’s 18. This is a concern, but if you pair Senesi with a defender who rotates well, you could profit.
Bournemouth are about to embark on a kind fixture run for the foreseeable future, with four home games in the next seven.
With the most solid defcon floor that money can buy and an incredible defensive record at home, Senesi could be one to consider as your Gabriel replacement.
Nathan Collins - Brentford
Price: £4.9m
After Brentford lost their manager to Tottenham, and Mbeumo went to Manchester United, there were some doubts about how Brentford would perform this season. However, certainly from a defensive standpoint, things are better than ever for them and their captain, Nathan Collins.
Brentford are 4th for expected goals against so far this season. They could be considered unlucky to have already conceded ten goals, and if the underlying numbers are anything to go by, we should expect this to improve.
Outside of Arsenal and Chelsea away, Brentford have a favourable run until gameweek 24. If they can convert their excellent defensive numbers into some more clean sheets, there could be a lot of points on offer.
Collins himself has been averaging around 9.5 defcons per 90, continuing his strong display from last season. He has failed to score so far, but has been taking the same number of shots in the box per 90 (0.55) as Gabriel, so there might be goals in his future.
Nathan Collins could be a solid Gabriel replacement, allowing you to spread the funds further up the pitch while benefiting from promising underlying numbers.
Nico O’Reilly – Manchester City
Price: £5.0m
A Manchester City fullback is always going to be a rotation risk, but Nico O’Reilly should be considered by those able to stomach Pep-Roulette.
Manchester City seem to have solved their defensive issues from last season. As mentioned earlier, they are 2nd behind Arsenal for expected goals against so far this season. They have also been overperforming these numbers slightly, which may be in part thanks to Donnarumma, who has performed well since coming in.
Nico O’Reilly has made the left back spot his own since Ait-Nouri’s injury. After coming into the starting 11 in gameweek 4, he has only been benched once, which was away to Aston Villa in gameweek 9. Ait-Nouri is back from injury, but O’Reilly has continued to start and perform well.
With two goals and an assist already this season, you can expect O’Reilly to continue ticking along with attacking returns. He is posting 0.22 xGI per 90 and taking around 1.4 shots per 90 as well. His defensive contributions have not been consistent, but with around 7.7 per 90, he has also been chipping in with the occasional extra two points.
City have a tough fixture away at Newcastle this week, but after that, their run is very kind until they go to Liverpool in gameweek 25. O’Reilly could be a long-term hold if his starts continue.
As always with Man City, the risk of rotation is there. But with such strong attacking data and defensive performance, O’Reilly should be considered.
Gabriel’s FPL Replacements: A Round Up
This is a decision that a lot of us are facing this week, and it feels like a pivotal one.
Saliba, Timber or Calafiori could individually step up in Gabriel’s absence. Although there may be an overall drop off, they still all play in the best defence in the league and have their own merits.
Marcos Senesi already has a lot of owners, and for good reason. Bournemouth have been incredible at home this season, and he has more defcons than anyone else.
Nathan Collins is a slightly more budget-friendly pick, but that does not necessarily mean a sacrifice in points. Collins benefits from Brentford’s strong underlying data and promising defcon numbers.
Nico O’Reilly is a high-risk, high upside replacement. He possesses great attacking numbers and plays in one of the best defences. Questions remain around his guarantee of starts, but he is worth considering.
