By Haaland’s high standards, it has been a quiet number of weeks since Semenyo arrived on the scene. As the most expensive asset in the game, his once secure spot in our FPL teams has started to come under some scrutiny.
As the FA Cup gives us a weekend off from the Premier League, we take a deeper look at his recent numbers and what the future could hold for him.
Recent Output
After looking unstoppable at the start of the season, things have slowed down for Erling Haaland recently. In the four matches between gameweeks 14-17, he returned five goals and three assists. By comparison, in the subsequent 12 gameweeks, he has just three goals and three assists to his name.
It has been felt that Semenyo’s emergence in the team has been the cause for Haaland’s downturn in form, which may well be the case. However, in the four gameweeks before his arrival, Haaland had just one goal.
Underlying Data
To take a deeper look at Haaland’s form since Semenyo’s arrival, we have compared his key per 90 stats from gameweek 1-21 and gameweek 22-29. Eight gameweeks is a very small sample size, especially given that Haaland has missed some time, but it is helpful to understand the numbers behind Haaland’s recent output.
Per 90 Data | GW 1-21 | GW 22-29 |
Non-Penalty xG | 0.80 | 0.25 |
xA | 0.07 | 0.11 |
Shots | 4.10 | 2.69 |
Shots in the Box | 3.75 | 1.97 |
Big Chances | 1.78 | 0.90 |
Chances Created | 0.59 | 1.43 |
Touches in the Box | 6.57 | 6.10 |
Touches in the Final Third | 11.70 | 13.98 |
Touches in Opposition Half | 16.14 | 17.93 |
Haaland’s goal threat has dropped off hugely, whilst his creation and assist potential have increased. This increase in creativity is not making up for his shortfalls in front of goal, however.
What is also interesting is the positions that he is touching the ball. He looks to be dropping deeper to get involved, which is likely to be because of the change in tactics that City have been deploying to accommodate Semenyo.
Rather than having a winger on either side of him, Haaland has been playing more as a split forward with one of Semenyo or Marmoush partnering him in attack. While this has suited Semenyo, it could also be in part due to Doku and Savinho’s injuries, who are now playing their way back to fitness.
What should be said is that while these numbers are concerning, Guardiola and the coaching staff will be very aware of them. For years, City have been set up to get Haaland the bulk of their shots and chances. It is very possible that an adjustment could be made to increase his involvement again or get him the ball in more dangerous positions.
Nico O’Reilly is a prime example of the constantly shifting dynamic of City’s structure. His run as a left-back and as an FPL asset looked to be coming to an end recently until he was moved into midfield.
Fitness Concerns
Haaland’s fitness is a worry. Having started every match until gameweek 22, he has since seen limited minutes against Wolves and Fulham and did not make the squad against Leeds after getting a ‘little injury’ in training. He also did not travel for Man City’s FA Cup tie at Newcastle last night, with Guardiola saying
‘I would prefer (him to have) good training sessions than to travel and play just 10-15 minutes’.
While we are unlikely to get the full story from Pep, it is clear to see that Haaland is managing some type of concern. What is unclear is whether that is down to his workload this season or an injury.
Fixture Schedule
These concerns over Haaland’s fitness will not be helped by his fixtures.
City have the dreaded Wednesday – Saturday – Tuesday turnaround this week, with West Ham sandwiched in between two Real Madrid ties in the Champions League.
The incredibly short turnaround could give potential for some minutes management against West Ham, which would be a plum fixture were there no concerns about the Norwegian.
To weaken Haaland’s appeal, he is now almost certain to blank in gameweek 31 following their win over Newcastle in the cup. This blank is followed by a trip to in-form Chelsea, before a potential double gameweek in 33, which would feature Arsenal.
Better Performing Alternatives
Joao Pedro and Hugo Ekitike are offering viable alternatives to Haaland in attack. Since gameweek 22, Pedro has eight goals and six assists, while Ekitike has three goals and two assists himself.
They both play in blank gameweek 31 and have potential for a double, like Haaland, in gameweek 33. These are their likely fixtures according to the Planet FPL projections on our site.
With Liverpool facing Spurs in gameweek 30, Ekitike is a viable captaincy alternative.
The case for selling Haaland is also helped by the emergence of some premium midfielder options other than Bruno Fernandes. Palmer looks to be approaching his best again under Rosenior, while Salah has also started to show some improvement of late. This suggests that there may finally be somewhere to put the money that selling Haaland would free up.
Is Haaland a Hold or Sell: Final Thoughts
The numbers, fixtures and fitness concerns for Haaland make selling a tempting option, especially when you consider his price at £14.6m.
Your goals for the season and management style should also play a part in your decision. For a manager who is chasing rank or one who likes to make more maverick moves, selling is the clear choice. Haaland is still owned by 61.5% of the game, so there are gains to be made by betting against him.
On the other hand, a manager who is looking to preserve rank or prefers less risk could consider holding. The West Ham game is a great fixture for Haaland, should he start. Keeping him in place could pay off massively if he overcomes his fitness concerns and City make a tactical tweak to get his shot numbers back up.
Regardless of your final choice, enjoy weighing up each side of the dilemma this week. The process behind decisions like this is what FPL is all about.
