After a midweek where English teams in Europe tried to ensure there would be no double in gameweek 33, our attention turns to differentials to inject some life into FPL.
A returning defender, a budget midfielder and the ‘Elliot Anderson’ of forwards make up our three under-the-radar picks this week.
Piero Hincapie
Ownership in FPL: 0.9% Price: £5.1m Position: Defender
Back in gameweek 16, we put Hincapie forward as one of our differentials in the absence of Gabriel. His ownership has increased by only 0.3% in that time, but his price has dropped £0.3m, making him an even more appealing differential option.
In contrast to his first appearance in our blog, he is now playing mainly as a left back rather than in the left centre back position. He has seemingly taken over that role from Calafiori, who cannot stay fit for any length of time.
Despite being a centre back by trade, Hincapie has been delivering for Arsenal’s attack. Those who triple-captained Gabriel will fondly remember Hincapie’s goal from Gabriel’s assist in the double gameweek.
Hincapie has also been supporting with some much-needed creativity from the left. If we look at the last five weeks, he is joint first among defenders for chances created and sixth for crosses.
In those five weeks where he has been starting consistently, he has also been providing a steady floor of defensive contributions (defcons). He has averaged just under 10 per match in that time, delivering the extra two points on two occasions.
Arsenal’s run-in provides a lot of encouragement for Hincapie as an asset.
A blank in gameweek 31 and possibly 34 dents his appeal slightly, but he has a potential double in gameweek 33 and great fixtures outside of the blanks. Hincapie is someone who could provide excellent value to those with a team set-up that can facilitate him.
Alex Scott
Ownership in FPL: 1.3% Price: £5.1m Position: Midfielder
The 2025/26 season will be remembered for the controversial introduction of defcon points. Some managers still prefer attacking potential in their assets, while others opt for the safe floor that defcon provides. Alex Scott is a differential who provides the best of both worlds.
Scott has become a mainstay in this Bournemouth side. He has only failed to start on two occasions this season and has started and completed 90 minutes in each of the last nine matches.
His consistency of minutes gives him time each match to rack up defcons. If we take the last nine starts, he has recorded the extra points on six occasions and missed it by one on another. Across the season, he is at 11.76 per 90.
On the (more interesting) attacking side of things, Scott lines up as one of the two central midfielders for Bournemouth, but is always the more advanced of the two. His attacking output lies primarily in his goal potential, but he does offer some creativity.
In the last six, Scott has recorded 2.24 expected goal involvements (xGI). 1.79 of this comes from xG, which is encouraging for his upside.
In that time, he has created a big chance and has been on the receiving end of two himself, converting one of these. He has also taken six shots in the box, which is level with popular assets in the community such as Dango Ouattara and Harry Wilson.
In contrast to Arsenal, who have a run-in complicated by blanks and doubles, Bournemouth have a straight shot to the finish line.
Scott offers good fixtures if you are freehitting in 33, starting with a plum fixture in gameweek 30 at Burnley. He can be benched for the Arsenal game, but will more than likely at least record defcon. The dual threat he offers makes Scott an easy set-and-forget option.
Jarrod Bowen
Ownership in FPL: 7.6% Price: £7.5m Position: Forward
From one defcon merchant to another, Bowen completes our list of differentials for gameweek 30. The West Ham forward has a ridiculous 214 defensive contributions this season, putting him over 60 ahead of the next best forward. However, there are many more strings to his bow.
Jarrod Bowen really does it all for this West Ham side who are fighting for their lives. In a tough season, he still has eight goals and six assists and has the potential to hit double figures in both categories.
As is often the case, Bowen has played nearly every minute possible this season. He is fifth among outfielders for minutes played, and first for forwards.
There are very few boxes that the West Ham captain does not tick. He takes some set pieces, is sixth for shots among all outfielders, and creates his fair share of chances too.
If that was not enough, West Ham’s star man has become even more of a talisman since the January transfer window. With Paqueta’s departure, Bowen has taken back penalty duties for the Hammers.
With everything to play for, and signs of improvement coming from the Hammers, Bowen could be a great pick to end the season with.
While there is a lot of red on his fixture ticker, his floor is raised in these matches because of his defcon potential. Bowen is also someone who finishes the season strongly. In West Ham’s final six matches last year, he recorded five goals and three assists.
FPL Gameweek 30 Differentials: Round Up
Piero Hincapie £5.1m is starting at left-back for Arsenal as they make their final push for the title 0.9% Ownership.
Alex Scott £5.2 is a double threat in midfield, offering a defcon floor and attacking upside 1.3% Ownership.
Jarrod Bowen £7.5m is as reliable a talisman as you will find, with everything to play for 7.6% Ownership.
