Best Differentials for GW22 and beyond

A brief look at some of the best differentials for GW22 and beyond to help you close the gap in your mini-leagues.
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Best Differentials for GW22 and beyond

Published Monday 29 January 2024

In this article we are going to take a brief look at some of the best differentials for GW22 and beyond to help you close the gaps in your mini-leagues.

A differential is defined as a player who is owned by less than 10% of the player base in the top 1% of the game, which currently amounts to around 106,000 players. We choose this figure as it gives a better representation of truly active players, rather than using overall figures where there are a lot of dead teams. If you want to win your mini-leagues via differentials then you probably need to be targeting players not owned in these ranks in the game.

As always, all of the prediction data which this article is based on can be found on this website, and you can add your own filters easily at You can also share preset filtered pages by simply filtering, and then sharing the URL directly. For example the data used here is for players with top ownership of 10% or under and over the next 6 weeks and can be found directly at

Nathan Aké - 34.20 xPts

First up on the list is Nathan Aké. He has the highest xG per 90 of 0.12 behind only Alex Moreno (0.20) and Lewis Dunk (0.13) of all current starting defenders in the PL this season. With goals for defenders bringing in twice as many points as assists this gives him a decent chance at points.

Aké already has 2 goals to his name in the PL this season and also recently scored in the 1-0 win over Tottenham Hotspurs in the FA Cup. Aké is a constant threat at set pieces for Manchester City and with Kevin De Bruyne back, and likely on corner and free kick duties, the quality of delivery is likely to improve.

The obvious elephant in the room with Aké is his expected minutes and Pep roulette. Aké has however played 90 minutes in the 5 Premier League matches. Aké ability to play both centre back and left back also gives him more chance of starts, although it should also be mentioned that John Stones and Manuel Akanji are likely back soon.

Furthermore Manchester City have the extra fixture which is likely why Aké features so highly on this list along with other Manchester City players, but he feels like a potentially explosive asset for a double if he were to play both games.

Even without the double Manchester City's fixtures read Burnley (H), Brentford (A), Everton (H), Chelsea (H), Brentford (H), Bournemouth (A) which is the best run for any team in the next 6 taking into account relative strength.

Bruno Fernandes - 29.69 xPts

Secondly we have the much-maligned Bruno Fernandes. Writing this article and seeing Bruno on the list made me have to check the figures twice but he is actually 6th for xGI over the whole season among midfielders, whilst everyone above him is either unavailable - Salah (20.05), Mbeumo (13.91), Son (11.65), or above 10% owned in the top 10% - Saka (13.91), Palmer (12.18) and thus not a differential.

In Bruno's favour is the fact that he will play 90 minutes every game and is on penalties, unless he decides to give another of his mates a confidence boost. The fixtures are a mixed bag with West Ham (H), Luton (A), and Fulham (H) in the next 6 where he could get some decent returns.

Eberechi Eze - 27.46 xPts

Finally we have the Crystal Palace man Eberechi Eze. Eze is more of a fixtures play than anything else with his xGI per 90 of 0.54 over the season not particularly stand-out over other midfielders this season. With Olise just on his way, Eze is expected to be on penalties and direct free kicks in the short-term so he has many routes to points, however the Crystal Palace attack as a whole hasn't exactly been ripping up trees this season.

However, on the flip-side Palace comes up against some of the worst defenders with Sheffield United (H), Brighton (A), Everton (A), and Burnley (H) to come in the next 6,


Honestly, looking through the list of differentials for the next 6 doesn't fill me with excitement so it might be a time to sit back and stick with the template for a bit. While Aké probably holds the most potential upside from the list, his expected minutes makes him more of a risky play while good players that will play 90 minutes such as Bruno and Eze are playing for teams who don't instil much confidence of scoring many, but have the benefit of penalties, and set pieces to increase their routes to points.

The Full List

The above are a selection from the top 10. The full list can be seen below:

1. Aké - 34.20 xPts
2. Ederson - 30.46 xPts
3. Gvardiol - 30.04 xPts
4. Fernandes - 29.69 xPts
5. Raya - 27.61 xPts
6. Eze - 27.46 xPts
7. Diaby - 27.42 xPts
8. Bernardo - 27.35 xPts
9. Ødegaard - 26.94 xPts
10. Rúben Dias - 26.87 xPts

See the full list at

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